Highest temperature in NYC on June 12?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

LaGuardia Airport's peak temperature on 12 June 2026 will be measured and recorded by Wunderground's historical database, with settlement tied to whichever range contains that single daily high. The market currently shows 100% probability across all temperature bands, indicating traders are pricing certainty that *some* temperature will be recorded—a mathematical inevitability rather than a weather forecast. This reflects the market's binary nature: a temperature reading on that date is guaranteed; the uncertainty lies entirely in which range it falls within.

June temperatures at LaGuardia typically peak between 75°F and 85°F, with historical June averages around 79°F. The 30-year normal high for mid-June sits near 80°F, though the airport has recorded extremes ranging from 54°F to 96°F in June across its records. Traders should reference Wunderground's own historical data for LaGuardia to calibrate expectations; the site's archive shows considerable year-to-year variation even within the same calendar date, with some June 12ths running cool and others warm depending on prevailing Atlantic patterns.

The National Weather Service's extended forecast window does not yet cover June 2026 with meaningful specificity—seasonal outlooks typically begin 8–14 days ahead. Traders monitoring this market should watch for updated climate patterns in late May 2026, particularly any Atlantic hurricane activity or heat dome development that might influence northeastern US temperatures. Until then, historical distribution remains the primary reference point for assessing which temperature band carries genuine probability versus the current flat pricing.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on June 12? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.