Highest temperature in NYC on June 11?

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Market context

New York City's weather on 11 June 2026 will be determined by early-summer atmospheric conditions across the northeastern United States, with the LaGuardia Airport station serving as the official measurement point. The current 0% probability assigned to this market suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating the question as unresolved pending meteorological data closer to the date.

Historical June temperatures at LaGuardia typically range between 75°F and 88°F, with occasional peaks above 90°F during heat waves. The National Weather Service records show that early June in New York has experienced highs exceeding 85°F in roughly 60% of years over the past three decades, whilst days reaching 95°F or higher occur in approximately 15% of early-June occurrences. These benchmarks provide context for evaluating which temperature bands traders should consider most probable as the settlement date approaches.

Traders should monitor the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's extended forecasts beginning in late May 2026, which will clarify whether Atlantic high-pressure systems or cooler Canadian air masses dominate the Northeast during that week. The National Weather Service typically issues detailed six-to-ten-day outlooks approximately one week before the target date, offering the most actionable data for refining probability estimates. Seasonal climate patterns and any unusual jet-stream positioning will become apparent through standard meteorological reporting channels in the weeks preceding 11 June.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.