Highest temperature in NYC on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City is enduring a severe heat wave that has pushed LaGuardia Airport to 104°F on 2 July, shattering the 1966 daily high record of 101°F and setting the stage for continued extreme temperatures through the settlement window [8]. The market’s current 0% implied probability for a “YES” outcome appears misaligned with the immediate reality, as the crowd now assigns a 34% chance to the 86–87°F range and 31% to 84–85°F for today’s peak [1]. This shift reflects traders reacting to the unprecedented warmth, with the lowest temperature market also pricing in a 55% probability for a 74–75°F low, indicating a hot day with minimal overnight cooling [5].

Historical context shows LaGuardia has recently recorded its warmest midnight ever at 94°F, breaking the 2013 record of 93°F, proving that heat in this wave lingers well past sunset [3][9]. July 2026 forecasts for the airport suggest daily highs between 81°F and 99°F, with the average high at 85°F, meaning the current 86–87°F frontrunner sits just above the norm but well within the forecasted upper band [4]. The 100°F maximum recorded on 4 July further confirms that temperatures are consistently exceeding historical averages, making a sub-82°F peak highly improbable given the current trajectory [6].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily climate summaries for LaGuardia, which update at 259 PM and provide the official maximum temperature for the day [6]. Any announcement of a new daily record or a significant drop in humidity could alter the settlement outcome, as the current heat wave depends on sustained high-pressure systems keeping the East Coast trapped in hot air [3]. The resolution source, Wunderground, will capture the highest temperature recorded at any time on 5 July, so even a brief spike above 87°F would resolve the market away from the lower ranges [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.