Highest temperature in NYC on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The National Weather Service forecast for New York City on 28 July 2026 will determine whether temperatures reach into ranges that have become increasingly common during summer heat waves across the northeastern United States. LaGuardia Airport's official temperature reading—the settlement metric—typically runs 2–4 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than central Manhattan due to its location and urban heat characteristics. Current crowd positioning at 0% suggests traders are either awaiting updated seasonal forecasts or treating this as a placeholder market pending meteorological data closer to the date.

Historical July temperatures at LaGuardia show a median high of 82°F, with the station recording 90°F or above on roughly 8–10 days per month during peak summer. The 30-year average maximum for late July sits near 84°F. Notably, the past five summers have seen increased frequency of days exceeding 88°F during this period, reflecting broader warming trends documented by NOAA. The 1999 heat wave pushed temperatures to 99°F on 22 July, establishing the upper boundary of plausible outcomes for this specific date.

Traders should monitor the Atlantic hurricane season activity and upper-level atmospheric patterns emerging in early July 2026, as these drive whether high-pressure systems dominate the Northeast or whether tropical moisture and cloud cover moderate temperatures. The National Weather Service's 8–14 day outlooks, typically issued mid-July, will provide the first actionable guidance on whether conditions favour heat accumulation or cooler, unsettled weather patterns for the settlement window.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.