Highest temperature in NYC on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

LaGuardia Airport's highest temperature on 27 July 2026 will be measured against historical July patterns for New York City. The settlement hinges on the single daily maximum recorded at the station, which typically occurs in mid-to-late afternoon during summer months. Current crowd pricing at 0% suggests traders are either uncertain about which temperature bracket will resolve or have minimal conviction on the extremes.

July temperatures at LaGuardia historically cluster between 78°F and 88°F for daily highs, with readings above 90°F occurring roughly once every two to three years during the month. The 1999 heat wave produced a 98°F reading on 9 July, whilst more recent summers have seen occasional 92–95°F days. The 30-year average high for late July sits near 84°F. These benchmarks provide the baseline against which any outcome should be evaluated; extreme heat requires specific atmospheric conditions—typically a Bermuda High pressure system stalling over the Northeast—rather than typical summer conditions.

The National Weather Service's extended forecast window remains too distant for reliable detail at present, though seasonal patterns suggest late July typically sits between the peak heat of early August and the more moderate conditions of early July. Traders should monitor late June and early July atmospheric patterns for signals about whether a high-pressure system might establish itself by late month. Historical precedent indicates that most years resolve in the 82–88°F range, making extreme outcomes statistically less probable without specific meteorological setup.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 27? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.