Highest temperature in NYC on July 26?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York has just come through an unusually hot spell this month, with a broader North American heatwave keeping the region warmer than normal and Central Park reaching 100°F earlier in July. Against that backdrop, the market’s 0% YES price points to the very top end of the distribution still being considered remote, even though July climatology in New York normally clusters around an average high of 85°F. [6][1]

The comparable framing is straightforward: late-July New York usually produces highs in the upper 80s at most, while the current July 2026 forecast from AccuWeather shows daily highs mostly between 81°F and 89°F. That leaves outcomes in the upper 80s plausible, but the market resolution depends on the highest reading at LaGuardia Airport on the day, not a citywide average, so brief spikes matter more than the headline forecast. [1][7]

For traders, the main catalysts are the day-of weather evolution and any short-notice shifts in cloud cover, sea breeze, humidity, or thunderstorm timing that could cap the afternoon maximum. The relevant settlement source is Wunderground’s LaGuardia Airport history page, and the market resolves on the highest temperature recorded there during the full day, so the final print can be influenced by a late-afternoon warm-up as much as an early-morning start. [market description][1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.