Highest temperature in NYC on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature forecast for New York City on 23 July 2026 remains uncertain, with meteorological models currently showing considerable variance for mid-summer conditions at LaGuardia Airport. July in New York typically experiences peak heat, with historical daily highs averaging around 84°F (29°C), though the range between years can span from the low 70s to the mid-90s Fahrenheit depending on prevailing atmospheric patterns and any tropical systems in the Atlantic basin.

Historical precedent offers limited direct comparison for this specific date, as July 23 records at LaGuardia show considerable variability. The station's all-time July high stands at 104°F (40°C), recorded in 1999, whilst cooler Julys have produced highs in the 72–78°F range during anomalously wet or cloudy periods. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting firmer forecast data or treating this as a placeholder market pending seasonal pattern clarification closer to the resolution date.

Traders monitoring this market should track the Atlantic hurricane season trajectory and any developing heat dome patterns across the northeastern United States in early July 2026. The National Weather Service's extended outlooks, typically issued 8–14 days in advance, will provide the most actionable guidance on whether July 23 falls within a heat event window or a more temperate phase. Tropical activity or upper-level blocking patterns could significantly shift temperature expectations, making late June and early July forecast updates critical decision points for positioning.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 23? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.