Highest temperature in NYC on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City is bracing for a heat spike as temperatures climbed to 91.9°F yesterday at the LaGuardia Airport Station, with oppressive humidity and a dew point of 71.1°F driving the 60% crowd-implied probability for a high-temperature outcome. This sharp rise from typical July averages of 84°F suggests the atmosphere is primed for another day of extreme heat, aligning with forecasts that predict daily highs between 80°F and 96°F through mid-July [1][2].

Historical patterns for mid-July in New York show that days exceeding 90°F are common but not guaranteed, with long-term averages indicating daytime maximums around 29°C (84.2°F) and significant sunshine exposure [3]. The current probability leans heavily toward the upper end of the forecast range, mirroring recent market behaviour where specific temperature bands like 72–73°F have attracted near-total certainty when conditions align, though July 2026’s volatility remains higher than those settled cases [4].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the LaGuardia station, as the settlement depends entirely on the highest recorded temperature for all times on 16 July 2026. Any sudden shift in cloud cover, wind direction, or precipitation could alter the peak, but the current trajectory points toward sustained high heat unless a weather system interrupts the pattern before the 12:00 UTC settlement window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 16? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.