Highest temperature in NYC on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The biggest change in the last 24–48 hours is that New York City has been running in proper late-summer heat, with the official KOKX climate summary showing a **91°F maximum** for the day and a morning minimum of 78°F[1]. Forecasts collected by market pages pointed to highs around **90–91°F** on 7 August under mostly sunny conditions, with only a slight thunderstorm risk limiting upside[3]. The market’s 0% implied probability for a YES outcome therefore looks inconsistent with the recent temperature set-up rather than with a cool regime.

For context, this sits in the normal hot-season band for New York: August highs commonly sit in the upper 80s, and forecast services had already been showing low-to-mid 80s for nearby days before the stronger warm-up[2][11]. The key distinction here is that this market resolves from Weather Underground’s **Daily Observations** for **LaGuardia Airport Station**, not the simpler day-high summary, so the exact reading matters more than broad city-level forecasts[8]. That makes 89–91°F a more relevant reference zone than headline “feels like” coverage or non-official city averages.

Traders should watch for the final Weather Underground observation for LaGuardia and whether any late-afternoon convective activity trims the day’s peak before the settlement cutoff. The resolution window closes at **12:00 UTC on 7 August**, so the market is exposed to any last published observation from the station before that time, and later revisions only matter if they are made before the first datapoint for the following date is published[3][8]. National Weather Service climate products and any late-day forecast updates are the main external catalysts, but the settlement source remains the decisive input[9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on August 7? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.