Highest temperature in NYC on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City's weather on 19 August 2026 remains difficult to forecast with any precision at this distance. The 0% crowd probability reflects the inherent uncertainty of predicting specific temperature ranges nearly two years ahead, rather than any meteorological consensus that extreme heat is impossible during peak summer in the city. LaGuardia Airport, the official resolution station, typically records daily highs in the low-to-mid 80s Fahrenheit during mid-August, though heat waves regularly push readings into the 90s.

Historical August records at LaGuardia show considerable variability. The station has recorded temperatures exceeding 95°F on multiple occasions during August, with the all-time August high reaching 99°F. The 2010s and early 2020s saw several August heat events where daily highs reached 90°F or above, demonstrating that elevated temperatures are neither rare nor unprecedented for this period. Comparable years with similar atmospheric patterns suggest traders should treat the current 0% probability as reflecting forecasting difficulty rather than meteorological impossibility.

The National Weather Service's seasonal outlooks, typically released in July 2026, will provide the first substantive guidance on August temperature patterns. Atlantic hurricane activity and upper-level atmospheric circulation patterns developing through spring and early summer will shape whether late August leans cooler or warmer than climatological norms. Traders should monitor late-July forecasts closely, as that window will offer the most reliable predictive information available before the settlement date.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.