Highest temperature in NYC on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York's weather system for mid-August 2026 remains fluid, with atmospheric patterns still two months distant from firm forecasting. The 0% crowd probability reflects genuine uncertainty rather than consensus that temperatures will fall outside measurable ranges—any August day in Manhattan produces a recorded high, making the actual question which temperature band will capture that reading. Recent seasonal data shows August highs at LaGuardia typically cluster between 78–88°F, though the airport's official observations occasionally record readings outside this band depending on timing of peak heating and measurement methodology.

Historical August patterns at LaGuardia reveal meaningful variability. The past decade has seen August 16 highs range from 72°F to 89°F, with no single temperature band dominating across years. The distinction between Weather Underground's Daily Observations table and its Day High & Low summary matters operationally; traders should note that the former captures sub-daily station readings whilst the latter represents a processed daily summary. This resolution specification means the exact timing of temperature peaks during August 16 becomes material to settlement.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal forecast updates from the National Weather Service as summer approaches, particularly any signals about Atlantic ridge positioning or tropical system activity that could influence August conditions. The current 0% reading suggests the market has not yet priced in specific temperature bands, leaving room for calibration once meteorological models show greater confidence in mid-August patterns.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on August 16? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.