Highest temperature in NYC on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City's weather on 15 August 2026 will be shaped by typical mid-summer atmospheric patterns, with the National Weather Service and Weather Underground data from LaGuardia Airport serving as the definitive record. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific temperature range or minimal engagement with this particular settlement date. August temperatures at LaGuardia historically cluster between 78–88°F on daily highs, though the station has recorded readings exceeding 95°F during heat waves. The 2024 summer saw several days above 90°F in early August, whilst the 2023 peak reached 96°F on 6 August.

The critical dependency for this market is the Atlantic hurricane season's trajectory and any tropical systems that might influence northeastern weather patterns by mid-August 2026. Heat domes and blocking high-pressure systems typically drive the most extreme readings during this period. Traders should monitor the Climate Prediction Center's seasonal outlooks and any emerging El Niño or La Niña conditions, which influence summer temperature distributions across the Northeast. The resolution mechanism's specificity—using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures—means historical discrepancies between reporting sources could matter; LaGuardia's official station data has occasionally shown variations of 1–2°F depending on measurement timing and methodology.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on August 15? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.