Highest temperature in Munich on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich is currently facing a mostly cloudy afternoon with a thunderstorm expected later today, pushing the high to just 21°C (78°F) rather than the scorching levels implied by the zero per cent crowd probability for extreme heat. This immediate shift in atmospheric conditions, driven by incoming cloud cover and storm activity, has effectively collapsed any speculative interest in higher temperature brackets, aligning the market with the reality of a cool, unsettled summer day [2][3].

Historical data for mid-July in Munich typically sees highs ranging between 23°C and 29°C, with 29°C appearing as the market frontrunner at 57 per cent probability, suggesting the current zero per cent YES figure reflects a specific mispricing or a misunderstanding of the settlement range rather than a genuine belief in freezing conditions [1]. Comparable cases from recent years show that while 28°C and 29°C are common peaks, the presence of afternoon thunderstorms like those forecast today frequently caps temperatures well below 25°C, making the current market stance a reaction to this specific weather disruption rather than a long-term trend [3].

Traders should monitor the official Wunderground record for the Munich Airport Station (EDDM) once the settlement window closes, as this is the definitive resolution source for the highest recorded temperature [1]. The primary catalyst remains the afternoon thunderstorm forecast, which acts as a natural cooling mechanism; if the storm delays or intensifies, it will further suppress the peak temperature, reinforcing the low-probability outlook for extreme heat [3]. No further announcements are required beyond the automated data feed, but the timing of the storm’s peak intensity will be the critical variable determining the final resolution value.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

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Is this market available outside the US?

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What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

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