Highest temperature in Munich on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich's weather on 15 August 2026 will depend on the prevailing atmospheric pattern across central Europe in mid-summer. Currently, the crowd assigns zero probability to this event resolving, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific temperature range or insufficient engagement with the market. The settlement mechanism relies on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table at Munich Airport Station, which typically records readings at regular intervals throughout the day and may differ from headline high-low summaries.

Historical August temperatures in Munich show considerable variability. The city's long-term August average high sits around 24–25°C, though readings regularly exceed 28°C during warm spells. The record August high at Munich Airport stands at 37.3°C (set in 2015), whilst cooler Augusts have seen daily highs remain below 20°C. This range underscores why temperature forecasting for a specific date two years ahead carries substantial uncertainty; seasonal patterns, jet stream positioning, and any heat dome formation will determine whether 15 August 2026 falls into cooler, moderate, or exceptionally warm territory.

Traders monitoring this market should track European summer climate forecasts as 2026 approaches, particularly any signals about Atlantic blocking patterns or Mediterranean heat transport. The North Atlantic Oscillation and soil moisture conditions across central Europe typically influence August weather regimes. As the settlement date nears, standard meteorological forecasts will become available roughly 10–14 days beforehand, providing concrete data against which the market's probability distribution can be tested.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

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Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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