Highest temperature in Mexico City on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Mexico City's weather on 24 July 2026 will be shaped by the tail end of the Northern Hemisphere summer, when the city typically experiences its warmest daytime temperatures during the rainy season. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, capturing the full diurnal cycle at Benito Juárez International Airport, where official records are maintained. Recent atmospheric patterns across central Mexico have shown typical late-July behaviour, with afternoon convection and moisture influx from both the Pacific and Atlantic driving cloud cover that moderates peak temperatures.

Historical records from the airport station show July highs cluster between 26–28°C in most years, with occasional excursions to 29–30°C during drier spells. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either confidence in cooler-than-normal conditions or uncertainty about which temperature band the market is asking for. Comparable late-July days at this location rarely breach 31°C; the seasonal pattern favours afternoon thunderstorms that suppress maximum temperatures. The current 0% reading warrants scrutiny of the exact temperature thresholds the market has defined, as this will determine whether typical July behaviour settles as YES or NO.

Traders should monitor weather model consensus from 20–23 July for any anomalous high-pressure systems or unusual drying that could suppress cloud formation. The Mexican meteorological service (Servicio Meteorológico Nacional) issues daily forecasts that typically converge 3–5 days ahead. Any significant deviation from the 26–28°C seasonal norm would require sustained clear skies and low humidity—conditions less common in Mexico City's monsoon phase.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.