Highest temperature in Manila on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The 0% crowd-implied probability that Manila’s highest temperature on 1 July 2026 will fall outside the 34°C range has shifted sharply in the last 24 hours, driven by PAGASA’s early-morning bulletin confirming Tropical Depression Henry’s development and its imminent impact on Metro Manila. This low-pressure system, now moving west-northwest away from the landmass, is forecast to bring strong to gale-force gusts and heavy rainfall (50–100 mm) to coastal and upland areas including NAIA, effectively suppressing daytime highs through cloud cover and precipitation.

Historical July data for Manila consistently shows daytime maximums averaging 31°C with very high humidity, rarely exceeding 34°C even in peak dry-season months like April; the wet season, which begins in June and peaks in July, further limits temperature extremes due to frequent showers and 21 rainy days per month on average. Recent June 2026 records confirm this pattern, with the highest temperature reaching just 98.6°F (37°C) on 17 June amid 2.3 inches of total precipitation, reinforcing that a 34°C peak is already the market’s frontrunner at 100% probability, while any outcome below 26°C remains negligible.

Traders should monitor PAGASA’s hourly tropical cyclone bulletins issued from 5:00 AM today through 11:00 AM, particularly updates on Henry’s exit from the Philippine Area of Responsibility by 2 July morning, as its periphery combined with the Southwest Monsoon will sustain gusty winds and rainfall over Metro Manila until then. The key dependency is whether cloud persistence and rainfall intensity prevent any brief solar heating spike; if Henry exits faster than forecast or rainfall diminishes unexpectedly, a marginal temperature rebound could occur, though current weather models and long-term averages strongly support the 34°C resolution as the definitive outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.