Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Los Angeles International Airport has just recorded a maximum of 72°F for the past 24 hours, with current conditions hovering near 71°F under partly cloudy skies, reinforcing the crowd’s 0% probability that temperatures will breach the 76–77°F range on 9 July 2026. This recent stability aligns with the station’s typical July profile, where daily highs rarely exceed 79°F and average around 73°F, making a sudden spike to 76°F or higher highly improbable without a significant atmospheric shift [2][3].

Historical data from July at KLAX shows that even during peak summer warmth, temperatures seldom climb above 79°F, with the average high sitting at 78°F and the lowest recorded on 3 July at 62.4°F [1][10]. The 76–77°F bracket, while carrying a 43% implied probability in some markets, contradicts the long-term trend and recent observations, suggesting the current 0% read is more grounded in empirical reality than speculative models [7].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s 7-day forecast for KLAX, which currently predicts a high near 75°F this afternoon with gradual clearing, and watch for any announcements regarding wildfire-driven heat anomalies in the Southwest, which could alter local conditions [5][6]. While wildfire conditions remain critical through Monday, no immediate heat surge is forecast for Los Angeles, further supporting the low probability of a 76°F+ event on 9 July [6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.