Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Los Angeles recorded a 6-hour high of 82.9°F at the International Airport on 20 July 2026, with the daily peak reaching 81°F under cloudy skies, confirming the event has already occurred and the 0% YES probability for any unmet threshold is now factually settled [3][5][6]. The market resolves to the temperature range containing this recorded maximum, and since the day’s highest temperature is known, the outcome is no longer speculative but historical.

Historical July normals for KLAX show an average high of 79°F, with record extremes reaching 92°F in 1960, making 81–83°F a plausible but not anomalous range for mid-summer coastal Los Angeles [1][4]. The 82.9°F 6-hour peak aligns with typical variability when marine layer breaks occur, and the current crowd-implied 0% probability reflects that the settlement condition has been met and the market is effectively closed to new information.

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s official daily history page for KLAX, which serves as the definitive resolution source, and confirm the final reported maximum temperature against the 6-hour and 24-hour logs already published [3][8]. No further catalysts exist, as the settlement window ends 2026-07-20T12:00:00Z and the temperature data for that date is fully recorded; any discrepancy would stem from data revision, not new weather events.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 20? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.