Highest temperature in London on June 9?

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Market context

London's weather on 9 June 2026 will be measured against historical June temperatures at City Airport, where records show early summer typically ranges between 18–24°C, with occasional peaks above 25°C during warmer spells. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature bands available or expect conditions well below seasonal norms for that date. June in London rarely produces extreme heat; the airport's historical data indicates temperatures exceeding 28°C occur in fewer than one in five years during this month, making very high temperature ranges genuinely unlikely rather than impossible.

The settlement depends entirely on Wunderground's recorded maximum for 9 June 2026 at London City Airport Station, a specific measurement point that differs slightly from central London readings. Traders should monitor UK Met Office forecasts as June approaches, particularly any early-season heat advisories or Atlantic weather systems that might push temperatures upward. Recent patterns through spring 2026 will provide the most relevant baseline; if May runs unusually warm, June's opening week often continues that trend. The market's current zero probability likely reflects the wide range of possible outcomes rather than conviction that temperatures will fall outside all available brackets—standard June variability means multiple temperature bands should carry meaningful probability once forecasts firm up in the days before settlement.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in London on June 9? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Today — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.