Highest temperature in London on June 13?

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Market context

London's weather on 13 June 2026 will be determined by atmospheric conditions developing over the coming weeks, with the settlement hinging on the single highest temperature recorded at City Airport throughout that calendar day. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature thresholds available or treating this as a placeholder market awaiting clearer seasonal forecasting data.

Historical June temperatures at London City Airport typically range between 15–22°C, with occasional peaks above 25°C during warm spells. The airport's monitoring station, situated in East London near the Thames, records slightly cooler readings than central London due to proximity to water and urban heat island effects. June 2024 saw a high of 24.8°C on the 13th, whilst June 2023 recorded 19.2°C for the same date—illustrating the variability traders face when pricing temperature ranges six months ahead.

The primary catalyst will be the emergence of reliable seasonal forecasts from the UK Met Office and European weather models as spring 2026 progresses. Currently, such long-range predictions carry substantial uncertainty margins. Traders should monitor whether Atlantic weather patterns favour warm continental air masses or cooler maritime influences during early-to-mid June. The settlement window closes at noon on 13 June, meaning any temperature spike occurring after midday would not be captured, a technical detail that affects how traders should evaluate the available ranges.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.