Highest temperature in London on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

London City Airport is currently tracking a daily high of 24°C under clear skies and a fresh east-northeast breeze, a condition that makes the 3% market probability for a significantly higher temperature outcome appear starkly conservative against the immediate atmospheric reality[1][3]. The current 79°F (26.1°C) reading recorded just hours ago suggests the day is already approaching the upper bounds of typical July variability for this specific station, where the average high sits at 28°C[1][2].

Historical data for mid-July at EGLC shows that temperatures exceeding 30°C are rare events, usually requiring sustained high-pressure systems from the continent rather than the current fresh breeze conditions[2][8]. The market’s low implied probability aligns with the statistical norm where 26–28°C outcomes dominate, with the 27°C range currently holding a 52% share of the broader London temperature market on Polymarket[4]. A spike beyond the current trajectory would require an abrupt, unforecasted shift in wind direction to southerly or easterly flows, which is not indicated in the current Met Office outlook[3].

Traders should monitor the Met Office hourly updates for any sudden changes in wind direction or cloud cover, as the current forecast holds steady at 24°C with no precipitation expected[3]. The settlement relies exclusively on Wunderground’s recorded maximum for EGLC, meaning even a brief 10-minute spike could alter the outcome, though current trends suggest a stable day[1]. With the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC, the next critical data point is the official 12:00 UTC observation, which will likely confirm the day’s peak before the market resolves[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.