Highest temperature in Houston on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Rain and thunderstorms have dominated Houston’s July 15 outlook over the last 24 hours, suppressing daytime highs and keeping the crowd-implied probability of extreme heat at 0%. Current forecasts from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather predict a high near 83–86°F, with showers likely between 1pm and 4pm and a 60% chance of precipitation [1][2]. This wet, muggy pattern contrasts sharply with typical mid-July heat, where daily highs in Houston usually climb from 92°F to 95°F, rarely falling below 87°F [14].

Historical July data shows that temperatures exceeding 95°F are common in Houston, but the current cloud cover and rain chance make such extremes unlikely today. Comparable cases from recent years with similar moisture levels and storm activity also recorded highs in the low-to-mid 80s, reinforcing the market’s 0% YES probability for higher ranges [10][15]. Traders should monitor updates from the National Hurricane Center regarding the low-pressure trough east of Florida, which could shift rain patterns and influence afternoon temperatures [10]. Any sudden reduction in cloud cover or precipitation chance before 4pm CDT would be the key catalyst for a shift in implied probabilities.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Houston on July 15? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.