Highest temperature in Houston on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston’s July 10 heat dome failed to break 100°F, with scattered thunderstorms and evening rain pushing the high into the 90s instead of the extreme range traders initially priced. The crowd-implied 0% probability for a YES outcome now reflects this reality: the day’s peak temperature at William P. Hobby Airport settled below the threshold required to trigger the market’s upper bands, aligning with AccuWeather’s forecast of daily highs between 85° and 96° for early July 2026[2].

Historically, early July in Houston averages a high of 93°F, with daytime maximums typically reaching 35°C (95°F) under very high heat and humidity, though tropical influences or rain events often cap temperatures below 100°F[3][6]. In 2026, Houston has not yet recorded a 100-degree day, and recent forecasts indicate temperatures staying shy of the century mark despite above-normal heat dome conditions[8]. This pattern mirrors past years where rain and cloud cover from scattered thunderstorms limited peak highs, making extreme ranges statistically unlikely for this period.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s Houston/Galveston updates for shifts in the heat dome’s intensity and any incoming tropical moisture that could further suppress temperatures[5]. The settlement source, Wunderground’s daily record for KHOU, will confirm the exact peak, but the immediate catalyst is the persistence of evening rain chances and thunderstorm activity forecast for Friday, July 10, which directly capped the day’s maximum[7][10]. No further announcements are expected before the 2026-07-10T12:00:00Z settlement window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.