Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong is already running hot enough to keep this market live, with the Observatory reporting 31°C at the city station by early afternoon and several districts in the low-30s, while Cheung Chau reached 33°C in the same hourly bulletin. That keeps the day well within the range where the final *absolute daily maximum* can move a few tenths higher or lower before the official extract is locked in. [7]

The historical frame is straightforward: July in Hong Kong regularly produces highs in the low-30s, but the extreme tail is much higher. The Observatory’s July ranking shows the record monthly maximum at 35.7°C, with the next-best at 35.6°C, and July 2022 set a new July peak of 36.1°C. On that basis, a 0% crowd-implied yes price looks like a strict read on the settlement definition rather than a claim that the day cannot finish warm. [3][8][13]

The main catalysts are the Observatory’s late-day temperature path and when the Daily Extract is finalised, since this market resolves only once the Hong Kong Observatory publishes the official “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” for 31 July. Traders should watch the hourly readings and any afternoon heat buildup in exposed districts, because the Observatory’s official bulletin can already show materially different district maxima from the central station. The settlement source itself says the data will not be final until the relevant daily extract appears on the climatology page. [7][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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