Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong is currently experiencing mainly cloudy conditions with occasional showers and squally thunderstorms, holding the air temperature at 29°C as of 8pm local time, which suppresses the likelihood of an extreme daily maximum today [1]. The 0% crowd-implied probability for a record-breaking high reflects this immediate unsettled weather, as a broad trough of low pressure is actively preventing the clear skies required for temperatures to spike above the typical July ceiling [3].

Historically, July in Hong Kong sees daily highs averaging 33°C, with the warmest period extending from late May to mid-September [12]. While El Niño conditions are forecast to develop into a strong event by late summer, potentially pushing temperatures to normal or above-normal levels, the current seven-day rain forecast significantly dampens the chance of a singular extreme heat event on 20 July [2][4]. Comparable cases from recent years show that sustained rain often caps daily maxima near 30–32°C, aligning with the current market pricing that rejects outlier highs.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s nine-day forecast updates, specifically the transition from rain to “fine and very hot” weather expected in the middle to latter parts of this week [3]. The development of a low-pressure area east of the Philippines midweek remains a key dependency, as its movement toward western Guangdong could alter humidity and heat accumulation [3]. Additionally, the release of DSE examination results on Wednesday brings a schedule of occasional showers and thunderstorms that may persist into the settlement window, further limiting extreme temperature potential [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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FAQ

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

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