Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong's peak temperature on 20 August 2026 will be recorded by the Observatory's official monitoring network and settled against the "Absolute Daily Max" figure published in their Daily Extract dataset. August sits firmly within Hong Kong's summer season, when heat and humidity typically peak; the month's historical daily maxima cluster between 31–33°C, with occasional excursions toward 34–35°C during particularly intense heat waves or when tropical systems approach.

The 0% crowd probability reflects genuine uncertainty about which specific temperature band will materialise on that date. August 2026 falls beyond the reliable seasonal forecast window, making prediction dependent on broader patterns: whether the Western Pacific subtropical high-pressure system dominates (favouring hotter conditions), or whether monsoon troughs or tropical cyclone activity moderates temperatures. Historical records show that roughly one in five August days in Hong Kong exceed 33°C, whilst temperatures above 34°C occur in perhaps 5–10% of August days across typical years.

Traders should note that the Hong Kong Observatory publishes daily data with a lag; the settlement window closes at midday on 20 August 2026, but actual resolution cannot occur until the Observatory finalises and publishes the Daily Extract for that date, which typically happens within days. Any tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea during mid-August, or shifts in the monsoon pattern reported by regional meteorological services in the preceding week, would be material signals for temperature trajectories.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 20? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

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On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

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