Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou is under a 2026 Yellow Warning for thunderstorms with heavy rain, and today’s official forecast caps the maximum temperature at just 30°C amid persistent rain[6]. This sharp drop from the seasonal norm—where July highs typically range between 34°C and 37°C, often exceeding 38°C—explains why the market currently prices a 31°C peak at 0%[2][1]. The 24-hour shift from expected heat to active downpours has fundamentally altered the probability landscape, making a hot outcome virtually impossible under current conditions.

Historically, early July in Guangzhou sees highs averaging 31.5°C to 31.7°C, with extremes regularly reaching 39°C during the hottest periods[8][9]. Yet this year’s monsoon positioning and persistent cloud cover have suppressed temperatures well below those benchmarks, aligning with the 28.5% market price for 31°C seen in comparable lines before the rain intensified[7]. The current 0% probability reflects not a lack of climatic potential, but the immediate reality of a wet, cool day that defies the usual summer heat pattern.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s next weather bulletin for any shift in the rain band or typhoon influence, as these factors directly dictate temperature ceilings[6]. A sudden break in cloud cover or the arrival of a dry air mass could rapidly alter conditions, though the forecast remains firmly rainy through the settlement window. No major announcements are expected, but real-time Wunderground data for the Baiyun Airport station will be the definitive resolution source, confirming whether the 30°C cap holds or if a brief spike occurs[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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Resolution & payout

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FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

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