Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou's peak temperature on 21 July 2026 will be measured at Baiyun International Airport Station, the official weather observation point for the city. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning the market resolves based on the highest reading recorded during the full calendar day in local time. Current crowd positioning at 0% YES suggests traders are either uncertain about which temperature band will verify, or the market lacks sufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds.

Guangzhou experiences consistent summer heat patterns in late July, with historical highs typically ranging between 32–35°C during this period. The city's subtropical climate produces little variation year-to-year at this stage of summer; extreme outliers above 37°C or below 30°C are rare enough to register as notable weather events rather than routine occurrences. Comparing 21 July conditions to adjacent dates in prior years provides the most reliable baseline for assessing probability distribution across temperature bands.

Tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea during mid-to-late July can alter Guangzhou's weather materially, either suppressing temperatures through cloud cover and rain or intensifying heat through atmospheric pressure shifts. Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts and typhoon tracking data in the week preceding settlement, as these represent the primary catalysts capable of pushing temperatures into unexpected ranges. The absence of scheduled weather alerts as of early 2026 suggests baseline summer conditions are most likely.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 21? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.