Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou has already been sitting in oppressive summer heat, and the latest forecast signals more of the same rather than a sharp cool-down. Recent intraday readings around the city were in the mid-30s Celsius, while short-range outlooks for early August cluster daily highs around 32°C to 34°C, with AccuWeather showing Guangzhou’s August highs mostly in the high 80s to low 90s Fahrenheit, equivalent to roughly 31°C to 34°C.[1][10][11] That keeps the market’s 0% YES impression for the upper temperature bands understandable: the most likely outcomes still sit in the middle of the distribution, not at the far edge.

For context, Guangzhou’s August climatology is hot, humid and rain-prone, with average highs near 33°C to 34°C and frequent afternoon thunderstorms.[15][17][19] Longer-run guides also point to occasional hotter spikes above 35°C, so a high outcome is not impossible, but it usually requires strong sunshine, limited cloud cover and weak precipitation suppression.[13][18] That historical pattern matters here because the market resolves on the station maximum for the whole day, not the midday reading.

The main catalysts to watch are the timing of showers and any thunderstorm bursts, which can cap daytime heating quickly in subtropical monsoon conditions.[2][13][19] Traders will also want to monitor whether the forecast trend shifts towards clearer afternoon intervals or, conversely, a more persistent rain band, since that would directly affect the station’s daily maximum.[2][6][8] Because settlement uses Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station data from Wunderground, late-day updates and any delayed official observations can matter if the day finishes close to a threshold.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.