Highest temperature in Dallas on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas is forecast to experience typical summer heat on 27 July 2026, with meteorological models currently suggesting peak temperatures in the low-to-mid 90s Fahrenheit. The 0% crowd probability reflects uncertainty about which specific temperature band will record as the daily high at Dallas Love Field Station, the official National Weather Service observation point for the metropolitan area. Recent 48-hour model updates have shown modest cooling trends compared to earlier forecasts, though the settlement window closes at midday local time, potentially capturing only partial daily heating.

Historical July records for Dallas Love Field show that daily highs typically range between 92–97°F during late summer, with extremes occasionally reaching 100°F or above during heat domes. The station's long-term dataset indicates that 27 July has historically produced highs clustering around 95°F, providing a baseline for evaluating which temperature bracket becomes most probable as the market approaches resolution. Traders should note that Love Field's urban location and measurement protocols can produce readings 1–2°F higher than surrounding rural areas.

The National Weather Service Dallas/Fort Worth office will issue updated forecasts through 26 July, with particular attention to any developing upper-level ridge patterns that could intensify afternoon heating. Real-time conditions on the morning of 27 July will prove decisive, as cloud cover, wind patterns, and overnight lows significantly influence peak daily temperatures. The settlement mechanism depends entirely on Wunderground's historical database pull from Love Field's official records, which typically updates within hours of the observation period closing.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.