Highest temperature in Dallas on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas has already had an extreme July spell, with WeatherSpark showing a 24-hour high of 108.0°F and a 6-hour high of 105.1°F in the city during the period around 22 July, so the market is being framed by temperatures that were already sitting in the upper end of the local summer range.[1] That matters because the contract resolves off the highest temperature recorded at Dallas Love Field on the day, not an averaged city reading, so a brief afternoon peak is what decides the outcome.[1]

The current 0% implied chance on YES is consistent with the market’s framing: if the day’s maximum stays in a lower bucket, the “yes” side on any higher-temperature outcome can be effectively dead even while conditions remain hot by ordinary standards. Historically, Dallas in late July can still produce temperatures well above 100°F, and WeatherSpark’s Dallas Love Field history for July 2026 shows a day of very hot, muggy conditions, which is the right backdrop for reading this as a threshold market rather than a simple hot-vs-cool call.[1][3]

For traders, the key catalysts are the afternoon forecast updates, any shift in cloud cover or rain chances, and whether nearby heat advisories persist through the settlement window. The settlement source is Wunderground’s Dallas Love Field daily history page, so the live terminal reading there is the number that matters, but the setup is still driven by the same short-term weather inputs: overnight lows, morning humidity, and whether the heat peaks before or after local mid-afternoon.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Dallas on July 22? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.