Highest temperature in Dallas on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas Love Field is tracking a high near 90°F today, with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm, yet the market’s 0% YES probability for any specific outcome appears misaligned with the actual forecast. The National Weather Service indicates heat index values could reach 99°F despite the air temperature hovering near the 90°F threshold, creating a volatile environment for precise temperature resolution [4]. This discrepancy suggests the current pricing may not fully account for the likelihood of the day’s peak temperature falling within the most probable ranges.

Historical July patterns in Dallas typically see highs between 88°F and 92°F, with 90–91°F being the most frequent outcome in recent years. The market currently assigns 44% probability to the 90–91°F range and 30% to 88–89°F, reflecting this historical clustering [1]. A 0% implied probability for the market as a whole is inconsistent with these distributions, implying either a technical error in the platform’s display or a misunderstanding of how the market resolves across its multiple temperature bins.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s hourly updates for Dallas Love Field (KDAL), particularly the 1pm thunderstorm window, which could suppress peak temperatures below 90°F. The official resolution source is Wunderground’s daily history for KDAL, so any divergence between forecasted and recorded highs will determine settlement [4]. With the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on 16 July, the next 12 hours of real-time data will be decisive in validating whether the current pricing corrects to reflect the 90–91°F frontrunner status [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Dallas on July 15? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.