Highest temperature in Dallas on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas is forecast to experience typical summer heat on 13 July 2026, with atmospheric conditions shaped by the North American high-pressure system that dominates the region during mid-summer. Current meteorological models suggest temperatures in the low-to-mid 90s Fahrenheit, though the exact peak depends on cloud cover timing and overnight lows that influence daytime warming potential. The settlement mechanism relies on the highest temperature recorded at Dallas Love Field Station, the official observation point, which typically captures peak readings between 2pm and 4pm local time.

Historical July records at Love Field show the station has recorded temperatures exceeding 100°F on 13 occasions since 1898, with the all-time July high of 103°F set in 1980. The median high for mid-July sits around 95°F, placing the current crowd probability at 0% as an outlier assessment. Comparable years with similar atmospheric patterns—such as 2011, when Dallas experienced an exceptional heat wave—saw multiple days above 100°F, though individual daily peaks varied considerably based on timing of convective activity and moisture patterns.

Traders should monitor National Weather Service updates and extended forecasts through early July, particularly any shifts in the subtropical ridge positioning that could either intensify or moderate the heat dome. Real-time conditions on the day itself—including any afternoon thunderstorm development that could suppress afternoon temperatures—will prove decisive. Historical data from Wunderground for Love Field provides the definitive settlement source, with the highest temperature recorded across all observation times determining the outcome.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Dallas on July 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.