Highest temperature in Dallas on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

A very hot day in Dallas has already been priced in, and the market now appears to be resolving around the upper-90s rather than any materially cooler outcome. Weather Underground’s settlement method matters here: it will use the highest value in the *Daily Observations* table for Dallas Love Field, not the headline day-high summary, so late adjustments to the observation table can still matter until the next day’s first datapoint is published.[1]

That framing fits the recent pattern. Nearby weather reporting for Dallas showed a sweltering Sunday with temperatures in the mid-90s late in the day, while the National Weather Service climate report for the area put the previous day’s maximum at 101°F and the day’s normal maximum at 97°F for 9 August, which is consistent with a hot but not exceptional August outcome.[2][4] Historical Dallas August data also show that sustained 100°F+ heat is common enough to anchor expectations, with the city’s record August high far above the current range traders are clustering around.[11][12]

For traders watching what can still move this market, the key dependency is the final Love Field observation sequence rather than general city forecasts. Official NWS point forecasts for the Dallas area and airport observations were still showing hot conditions early on 9 August, and any afternoon spike or a late-appearing revised observation would matter more than the broader daily summary.[6][9] The crowd is already overwhelmingly concentrated at 98–99°F on the comparable venue referenced in the market feed, so the remaining question is less direction than whether the final table entry lands at the top or just below that band.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Dallas on August 9? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.