Highest temperature in Dallas on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas saw another hot afternoon, and the near-term setup still points to a temperature band in the low 100s rather than a comfortable break. Weather Underground’s Dallas history page is the resolution source, and the market is keyed to the highest reading in the Daily Observations table at Dallas Love Field, so the final print matters more than the broader summary high. [3][12]

The crowd’s 0% YES looks detached from the actual summer pattern. Nearby prediction markets and recent forecast pages both pointed to triple-digit heat around 6 August, with one market front-running 100–101°F and the National Weather Service describing persistent summer heat and light southerly flow around Dallas-Fort Worth. Dallas also has a long record of extreme August heat, including numerous 110°F-plus days, so a result in the 100–101°F bucket would fit the historical range rather than represent an outlier. [1][7][8][9]

The main catalyst traders should watch is the final Weather Underground observation for Love Field after the afternoon peak, because revisions remain possible until the first datapoint for the following day is published. That makes the late-day observation cycle and any station-specific adjustment more important than headline forecast summaries. If the NWS forecast or local outlet updates had shifted materially in the last 24–48 hours, that would matter most for the higher buckets, but the available guidance still leaned hot rather than capped below 100°F. [1][3][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Dallas on August 6? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

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