Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing is heading into its hottest stretch of the year, and the key shift over the past 24-48 hours is that the city is already sitting in a summer pattern where daytime highs commonly run in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, with frequent spells above 35C and occasional peaks near 40C.[2][8] That leaves the market’s 0% yes price looking out of line with the normal July climate for Chongqing, where rain and humidity are common but do not usually prevent very hot afternoon readings.[2][3]

Historical context also points to a meaningful chance of a high-end outcome. Chongqing’s summer is described as hot, humid and rainy, with July average highs around 33C and extreme cases approaching 40C, while broader climate summaries show the city can exceed 35C during the warm season and August is typically the warmest month on average.[2][4][6] For a single-day airport station reading, that means the relevant band is less about the citywide average and more about whether sunshine, cloud cover and afternoon thunderstorms line up to cap the peak a degree or two lower than the hot-season norm.[2][8]

Traders should watch the day’s weather evolution at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport, especially cloud build-up, thunderstorm timing and whether rain arrives before the afternoon maximum is set. The resolution depends on the highest temperature recorded at that airport station on 27 July, so a late-morning heating surge can still matter even if showers develop later.[2][7] Recent market pricing on Polymarket has clustered around the upper-30s Celsius, with 39C leading and 38C close behind, which suggests the crowd is treating a very hot day as the base case rather than an outlier.[5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.