Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing’s heat profile has not shifted much in the past day: the city is still in its most thermally demanding part of the year, with August typically delivering highs around 34°C and muggy conditions that can keep daytime temperatures elevated late into the afternoon[2][9][20]. For this market, the key point is that the settlement source is the airport station’s *daily maximum*, so a brief spike matters more than the average temperature; the crowd’s 0% YES implies the current price is still anchored to an outcome that is possible only if the day runs notably hotter than a normal August reading[1][2].

Historical comparables point to Chongqing as a frequent heat-market candidate, but not a guaranteed extreme every year. Long-run climate guides put August among the hottest months, with average maximums around 34°C and occasional heatwave highs far above that, including a reported city record of 43°C on 23 August 2022[4][6][9]. That framing suggests the market should be read against a wide summer distribution rather than a narrow one: a 30s Celsius finish is routine, while an upper-30s result would require a stronger heat build-up than climatology alone would suggest[2][14][17].

The immediate catalysts are the usual late-summer drivers: cloud cover, convective rain, and whether the hottest part of the day gets delayed or suppressed by showers before the airport’s daily maximum is logged. Forecast products for Chongqing continue to show a hot, humid August with rain risk, which means traders should watch morning-to-midday updates rather than just the daily headline high[2][9][20]. The only hard settlement input is the Wunderground history page for Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, so any late temperature surge there will matter more than broader city forecasts or nearby-area readings[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 3? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.