Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing's August weather patterns show consistent heat through late summer, with daily highs typically ranging between 32–36°C during mid-August. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about which specific temperature band will resolve or are hedging against extreme heat scenarios. Recent meteorological data from the past 48 hours indicates standard seasonal conditions with no anomalous weather systems approaching the region that would drive temperatures significantly outside the historical August range.

Historical August records for Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport show the station regularly records highs in the 33–35°C bracket during this period, with occasional spikes to 36–37°C during heat waves. The 2023 and 2024 August datasets provide the most relevant comparable cases, both showing consistent clustering around mid-range temperatures rather than extreme outliers. This historical consistency is why the market's current 0% probability appears disconnected from baseline expectations—the crowd may be waiting for clearer definition of the specific temperature bands offered.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration updates through mid-August 2026, particularly any alerts regarding high-pressure systems or heat wave conditions. The settlement window closes at midday on 20 August, meaning the final observation from Chongqing Jiangbei will determine resolution. Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, specified as the primary source, typically updates through the afternoon local time, so traders will have visibility on actual recorded temperatures before the settlement deadline.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 20? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.