Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 10?

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Market context

Chongqing is starting the day with a forecast that still points to intense heat, but the latest 10-day guidance has eased a touch from the upper-30s Celsius extremes that are common in the city in August. AccuWeather’s current outlook for 10 August shows about 95°F/35°C, with thunderstorms early and periods of cloud and sun later, which matters because convective cloud cover and rain can cap the day’s maximum if they arrive early enough.[12][14]

That leaves the market’s 0% implied probability on the low side of historical reality. Chongqing’s August climate is routinely hot, with average highs around 34–35°C and occasional spikes into the 39–43°C range during heatwave periods, including a recorded 43°C extreme in recent years.[2][7][10][13][18] The present probability structure is therefore most consistent with traders expecting a high in the mid-30s rather than the top of the range, but the event can still move if the airport station posts an unusually warm, late-afternoon reading.

The main catalysts to watch are the timing and intensity of thunderstorms, the persistence of cloud cover, and whether the airport station gets the hottest part of the day before rain develops. The market resolves off Weather Underground’s Daily Observations for Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport, not the summary high/low, so late updates in that table are the key reference point. Weather Underground data can also be revised until the next day’s first observation is published, so a near-cutoff reading or a delayed update could still matter for settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

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