Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu is currently experiencing light rain showers this afternoon with a forecasted maximum of 35°C, a significant drop from the oppressive 26°C dew point recorded just 46 minutes ago at Shuangliu International Airport. The crowd-implied 0% probability for a higher temperature range reflects this immediate cooling trend, as the day’s peak heat has likely already passed under the cloud cover and precipitation.

Historically, July in Chengdu is the peak of the rainy season, where intense downpours frequently suppress daytime highs to around 25°C, though unseasonal heatwaves can push temperatures toward 38°C. The current 35°C forecast sits within the typical 30–35°C daytime range for this month, but the active rain and high humidity of 79% suggest the atmosphere is too saturated to support the extreme heat required to trigger a "YES" resolution in most temperature brackets.

Traders should monitor the cessation of the afternoon showers and the subsequent clearing of skies, as clear evenings often precede rapid temperature spikes the following morning. The primary dependency is the persistence of the rain system moving through the Kunming FIR, which currently maintains CAVOK conditions at the airport but limits solar heating. Any sudden shift to clear skies before the settlement window closes on 13 July at 12:00 UTC would be the critical catalyst needed to challenge the current zero-probability stance, though the immediate outlook remains damp and cool.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.