Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu faces another sweltering day on 20 August 2026, with the market currently pricing zero probability of extreme heat. The city's summer climate typically peaks in July and early August, with temperatures moderating slightly by late August as monsoon patterns shift. Historical data from Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport shows August highs averaging 29–31°C, with extreme readings above 40°C exceptionally rare in the latter half of the month. The 0% crowd assessment reflects this seasonal baseline: late-August conditions rarely produce the sustained heat spikes that characterise mid-summer months.

Traders should monitor two key variables. First, any unusual atmospheric blocking patterns or heat dome formation across central China in early August could alter the trajectory heading into the 20th. Second, the resolution methodology matters considerably—the market explicitly uses Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, which occasionally diverge. Chengdu's airport station is the designated measurement point, so localised urban heat effects or equipment calibration differences could affect recorded values. Recent meteorological forecasts for August 2026 are not yet available at this distance, making near-term weather model updates the primary catalyst for probability shifts.

The current zero reading suggests traders view a late-August extreme as implausible given climatological norms. Any probability movement would likely require forecasts indicating anomalous heat persistence well into the month or evidence of developing atmospheric conditions capable of sustaining temperatures substantially above the 31°C seasonal average.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

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