Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s airport has opened August in a familiar pattern of heat, humidity and scattered showers, which keeps the upside for the day’s high temperature intact even when the forecast looks cloudy. Long-run August norms put daytime highs around 30–31°C, with most guides describing the month as hot, muggy and prone to brief rain rather than prolonged cooling.[3][4][10]

That matters for a market currently priced at 0% YES, because the settlement is for the *highest* temperature reached during the day, not the average. Chengdu’s August climate regularly produces readings in the low 30s, and several sources note occasional spikes into the mid-30s on hotter days, with some years seeing extreme highs near 38°C.[2][5][9][17] On that basis, a zero-implied chance looks hard to reconcile with the city’s seasonal baseline unless conditions on the airport station are unusually suppressed by rain and cloud through the entire window.

The main catalysts to watch are the morning and midday weather evolution around Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, especially whether sunshine develops between showers and allows a late-day peak. For a station-based market, local convective rain, cloud cover and wind shifts matter more than citywide averages, so traders should follow the station history page for the day and any short-term forecasts around the airport rather than broader Chengdu summaries.[1][3][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 2? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.