Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu's peak temperature on 11 August 2026 will be measured at Shuangliu International Airport Station, with resolution determined by the Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either confident the market will resolve outside their preferred range or have not yet engaged with this specific forecast window. August in Chengdu typically brings sustained heat; the city's August average high sits around 29–30°C, though daily peaks frequently exceed 35°C during mid-summer heat waves. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on the resolution date, meaning the highest temperature recorded up to that point will determine the outcome.

Historical August records for Chengdu show considerable variability year to year. The city has experienced August highs ranging from the low 30s to above 38°C depending on monsoon patterns and high-pressure system positioning. Recent summers have trended warmer, with 2022 and 2023 both recording sustained periods above 35°C. The specific range brackets offered in this market will anchor expectations against these precedents; traders should cross-reference multi-year August datasets from Weather Underground's Chengdu station to calibrate their views.

Key dependencies include the East Asian summer monsoon's intensity and timing in early August, which influences cloud cover and convective activity across the Sichuan basin. Any significant weather pattern shifts—such as early monsoon withdrawal or a strengthening Pacific high-pressure system—would shift the probability distribution materially. Traders should monitor Chinese meteorological forecasts and regional weather models issued in the week preceding 11 August for shifts in the predicted temperature trajectory.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 11? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.