Highest temperature in Busan on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Busan's weather pattern for late July 2026 will determine whether temperatures exceed the thresholds being priced in this market. The Korean peninsula typically experiences peak summer heat during this period, with coastal cities like Busan moderated somewhat by maritime influence compared to inland regions. Current atmospheric conditions and seasonal forecasting models will shape the daily maximum recorded at Gimhae International Airport Station, the official measurement point for this resolution.

Historical data from Gimhae shows July averages around 26–28°C for daily highs, though extremes regularly exceed 30°C during summer heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in confidence that temperatures will remain within lower ranges, despite July being climatically one of South Korea's warmest months. Comparable heat events from previous summers provide context: the 2018 Korean heat wave saw Busan peak above 33°C on multiple days, whilst more moderate years have seen highs in the 28–30°C band during late July.

Traders should monitor the East Asian summer monsoon trajectory and any tropical systems developing in the Western Pacific, as these significantly influence Korean peninsula weather patterns in late July. The Korea Meteorological Administration typically issues extended forecasts 10 days ahead; their mid-July guidance will be critical for assessing heat dome positioning. Sea surface temperatures in the Korea Strait and upper-level atmospheric patterns will determine whether maritime moderation keeps Busan cooler or whether continental heat dominates the region during the settlement window.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Busan on July 28? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.