Highest temperature in Busan on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Busan has started the day with a warm, humid, and mostly cloudy setup, and the latest short-range guidance still points to a high in the high 20s to around 31°C rather than anything extreme. AccuWeather’s August outlook has Busan around 87°F/30°C for early August, while current readings in the city are already in the low 30s with high humidity, which supports a moderate summer peak rather than a surprise breakout higher.[1][5][9][14]

That leaves the 0% crowd-implied chance on the upper bands looking very aggressive unless conditions turn sunnier and more humid-free than expected. Busan’s August climate is normally hot and damp, with average highs around 85–86°F and frequent rain chances, so the market is mainly about whether the day lands near the seasonal norm or slips a few degrees below it.[1][6][7][18] For a settlement source tied to Gimhae Airport, traders should read the airport station rather than downtown feel-like readings, which can run hotter or cooler depending on cloud cover and sea breeze.[19]

The key catalysts today are the hourly evolution of cloud cover, any scattered shower bands, and whether the sea breeze arrives early enough to cap the afternoon maximum. The most useful live inputs are the station-level observations and the Wunderground daily history page for RKPK, because the market resolves to the highest recorded temperature at Gimhae Intl Airport Station on the day itself.[14][19] If the expected patchy rain and cloudiness persist through the heating window, the upside to the top temperature remains limited.[16][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.