Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on July 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

Buenos Aires enters mid-winter on 18 July 2026, with the city's coldest months typically spanning June through August. The Minister Pistarini International Airport station, located in Ezeiza roughly 25 kilometres south-west of the city centre, records temperatures that often run 1–2 degrees Celsius cooler than central Buenos Aires due to its proximity to the Río de la Plata and lower urban heat retention. Current meteorological patterns show no significant warm-air incursion forecast for that date, with typical July highs at the airport station ranging between 12 and 16 degrees Celsius.

Historical records from the past decade reveal that July 18 has produced maximum temperatures between 11 and 17 degrees Celsius at Pistarini, with only occasional outlier days reaching above 18 degrees during unusual warm spells. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either a notably cold outcome or uncertainty about which temperature band will resolve. Wunderground's historical data archive provides the definitive settlement source, accessible via the station's daily records page with temperature unit toggleable via the settings gear icon.

Traders should monitor any unexpected warm-air systems moving north from the South Atlantic in the days immediately preceding 18 July, though mid-winter blocking patterns typically prevent significant temperature swings. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on the resolution date, allowing for the full diurnal cycle to be captured at the airport station.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on July 18? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.