Highest temperature in Beijing on June 9?

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Market context

Beijing's weather on 9 June 2026 will be shaped by the transition into early summer monsoon season, when the city typically experiences warming temperatures and increased humidity from southwesterly flows. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about available temperature data or expect conditions that fall outside standard June patterns for the capital. Recent meteorological patterns across northern China have shown variable spring-to-summer transitions, with some years seeing rapid warming whilst others experience delayed heat arrival into mid-June.

Historical June records at Beijing Capital International Airport show the highest temperatures typically cluster between 32–35°C during the first fortnight, though outlier years have recorded peaks as high as 37–38°C when early heatwaves establish themselves. The settlement window closes at midday on 9 June, meaning only morning and early afternoon readings will count towards resolution. This timing matters considerably: if a strong high-pressure system moves in overnight on 8–9 June, afternoon peaks could exceed typical values; conversely, if cloud cover or precipitation persists from a passing weather system, maxima may remain suppressed.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts and any updates from Wunderground's historical database in the days immediately preceding the settlement date. The lack of current probability consensus suggests the market may be pricing genuine uncertainty rather than confidence in any particular temperature band. Watch for any significant weather alerts issued for Beijing in early June, as these often precede notable temperature swings.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.