Highest temperature in Beijing on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's weather on 12 August 2026 will depend on the intensity of summer heat and any passing weather systems during what is typically the city's hottest month. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are uncertain about which temperature band will prevail, or the market has yet to attract substantive positioning ahead of the settlement window.

August temperatures at Beijing Capital International Airport have historically ranged from 24°C to 35°C during the month, with daily highs most frequently clustering between 28°C and 33°C. The city experiences monsoon influence during mid-August, which can either amplify heat through stagnant air masses or introduce cooler, wetter conditions if tropical systems move northward. Comparable August 12th observations from recent years show variability: some years have recorded highs near 30°C amid unsettled weather, whilst others have peaked above 32°C under clear, high-pressure conditions. This historical spread explains why traders face genuine uncertainty in selecting a single temperature band.

The key variable traders should monitor is the position of the Pacific subtropical high-pressure system and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early August 2026. China's meteorological forecasts typically become reliable 7–10 days before the target date; traders should watch official China Meteorological Administration updates and international weather models from late July onwards. Any significant shift in monsoon patterns or unexpected tropical system development could materially alter the probability distribution across temperature ranges. The settlement relies on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table from Beijing Capital International Airport Station, making data source consistency critical for resolution.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.