Highest temperature in Beijing on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's weather patterns in mid-August typically reflect the tail end of the East Asian summer monsoon, with daily highs commonly ranging between 28–35°C depending on cloud cover and precipitation events. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an expectation that the highest temperature on 11 August 2026 will fall below the lowest resolution bracket offered, though without visibility on the specific temperature bands available, this assessment warrants scrutiny against historical August conditions in the capital.

Historical August data from Beijing Capital International Airport shows that peak daily temperatures during this period rarely dip below 25°C and frequently exceed 32°C, even accounting for rainy spells that can suppress afternoon highs. The 2010–2020 decade saw August 11th highs ranging from 26–36°C across individual years, indicating substantial year-to-year variability driven by monsoon intensity and timing. A 0% probability reading suggests either the market's lowest temperature band sits unusually high, or traders are discounting the likelihood of typical August conditions materialising.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for Beijing. Any significant weather system—tropical cyclone remnants tracking northward or an unusual high-pressure ridge—could materially shift temperature expectations. The resolution mechanism's reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures introduces a minor technical dependency; confirming the exact station data source and temperature bands before settlement approaches will be essential for accurate position management.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Beijing on August 11? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.