Highest temperature in Atlanta on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The latest shift is that Atlanta has already finished the day under the market’s settlement rule at Hartsfield-Jackson, and the crowd has effectively priced the outcome as an all-but-certainty in the lower temperature bands rather than a heat spike. Polymarket’s live pricing showed the centre of gravity in the 82–87°F range, with the 84–85°F and 86–87°F bins both trading around 50%, while 88°F or higher stayed much lower; that leaves the 0% YES figure looking more like a stale or misread probability than a live call on the actual station reading.[1]

For context, Atlanta’s August climate usually sits in the upper 80s for daily highs, with a historical monthly average high around 86°F, so outcomes in the mid-80s are ordinary rather than exceptional.[2][11] That makes the market most readable as a question of whether the airport briefly touched the upper 80s or stayed anchored in the mid-80s, not whether it behaved like a cooler-than-normal summer day. The airport station itself is the reference point, so downtown conditions or broader metro heat are not decisive if the airport lagged under cloud, rain, or a sea-breeze-style moderation.[1]

Traders should watch the official day-of observations from Hartsfield-Jackson via the resolution source, because a late-afternoon or early-evening uptick can still lift the daily maximum if the station warms after the morning peak.[1] The main dependency is the local forecast pattern: cloud cover, convective showers, and thunderstorms can cap the high near the low-to-mid 80s, while a dry, sunny run can push the reading a few degrees higher; recent forecast products for Atlanta pointed to highs around 89–92°F for nearby August dates, but those are guidance rather than the settlement figure.[2][5][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

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